Predicting Medicare Cost Growth
نویسنده
چکیده
Spending on Medicare has grown 2.4 percentage points faster than GDP over the last thirty years. If growth at these rates were to continue, Medicare alone would account for 31% of GDP by 2082, and healthcare expenditures in total would reach 99% of GDP. In order to generate more reasonable projections, researchers and policy analysts in the government have explored a number of different approaches. This paper reviews and evaluates these methods and suggests directions in which the literature must go in order to account for other un-modeled cost drivers. * I would like to thank Amitabh Chandra, Mike Chernew, Dana Goldman, Marilyn Moon, Joe Newhouse, and John Skinner for helpful suggestions and valuable discussion. Abdul Ahad Tariq provided excellent research assistance. † Harvard Kennedy School, email: [email protected]
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